When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty - Thomas JeffersonI thought of that quote when I read yesterday that the U.S. Senate has extended the law enabling the Government to search our emails and monitor our cellphones without a warrant. This country is collapsing...
I wanted to revisit briefly the notion that gold might be in some kind of bubble. A lot of people have contacted me expressing disappointment with gold's recent behavior and many have dumped their mining stocks or plan to do so. This is a mistake.
First, assuming it doesn't drop around $95 on Monday, gold will have completed its 12th straight year of year-over-year gains. Name one other asset class that has done that. In terms of reaching a new high, gold did that in August 2011 and the new high was followed by the current price correction cycle. These cycles typically last an average of 18 months, so we are nearing the end of this correction cycle.
Finally, I was struck by a chart posted by Chartsrus.com which shows the serial decline of gold demand in the western hemisphere. I wrote about that HERE As you can see, based on demand metrics gold is decidedly not in an investment "bubble."
From a fundamental standpoint, the mining stocks, as represented by the HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index of unhedged mining stocks, are as cheap relative to the price of gold as at any time over the last three years. This is actually true going back 10 years. As you can see from the HUI/gold chart I posted in the linked article, the HUI/gold ratio chart has consolidated just above a 3-yr low, after testing the 3-yr low twice. To reinforce the potential bullishness of the mining stocks, the momentum indicators represented by the RSI and MACD are moving higher from an "oversold" condition.
My prediction for 2013 is that it will be a very happy year indeed for anyone aggressively invested in the precious metals and mining stock sector.